Global poultry trade reached high levels
Global poultry is currently performing well, with profitability in most regions in the world, despite the ongoing global pressure of avian influenza (AI), especially in Asia. The big exception remains China, where the negative impact of human AI cases has kept prices down.
Human avian influenza cases in China are still diffuse and squeezing markets, while prices recently recovered fairly. A concern is the further diffuse of the virus in China, with recent motions to the north of China. Chinese local authorities have closed most of live bird markets in the effected areas and particularly this offers a big impact on the bird market. Imports are relatively unaffected, as they serve the processed meat market.
The meat scandal in Brazil is still having a significant impact on global trade. Exports from Brazil have been dropped since March up to -23%, and its creating an movement in global trade channels, on top of the avian influenza related impact. The United States has been the winner, with EU exporters also taking some of the Middle East trade.
Most of the global markets still performe well, to combine with a strong demand, restricted supply, and low feed costs. Mexico, India, Thailand, and Japan are still performe particularly also well, while South Africa and the European Union are on the way to recover.
Global meat trade is volatile, but reach a Q1 record on a level of 3m tonnes. Aside from the changes in raw trade driven by avian influenza, along with the Brazil meat scandal, a potentially big development could be the entry of Chinese cooked chicken into the US market.
Source: Rabobank Global Poultry Quarterly Q2 2017