USDA lowers estimate for meat production in 2017, raises 2018 forecast !
2017 beef production was lowered to 26.3 bn. lb. due to lower carcass weights, which will more than offset expected increased slaughter in the third part of 2017, adding expectations for 2018 are supporting a higher forecast of 27.2 bn. lb for beef. Pork production was also lowered to 25.9 bn. lb., which was due to the current pace of second-quarter slaughter and lower carcass weights. The production forecast for next year was unchanged at 27.9 bn. lb.
Broiler production was lowered based on the pace of second-quarter slaughter in 2017 and there are made no changes to outlying quarters and the forecast for 2018. USDA lowered for the second quarter of 2017 the estimated turkey production, which a result of the current pace of slaughter. Weak demand limiting the rate of expansion also caused to lower third-quarter production. USDA make no changes for the 2018 turkey forecast.
Beef forecasts for 2017 and 2018 remain unchanged from last month's estimates. The pork export forecast for 2017 was unchanged from last month, but USDA raised the import forecast. No changes were made to the 2018 pork trade forecasts. The second-quarter 2017 broiler import forecast was lowered based on recent trade data, but no changes were made to outlying quarters. The 2017 broiler export forecast also remained unchanged, but lowered by the turkey export forecast due to weak demand. Poultry trade forecasts were unchanged for 2018.